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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2023-05-09T19:00:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-05-09T19:00Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/25050/-1
CME Note: Large halo CME seen in SOHO LASCO C2, C3, and STEREO A COR2 imagery. Source is M4.2 flare from AR13296. Large EUV wave and dimming seen across the disk in SDO/AIA 193 and 171. ARRIVAL SIGNATURES at L1 and STEREO A, confirmed by LASSOS team as shock and iCME. -L1: 2023-05-12T05:48Z. Arrival signature is likely the CME shock arrival characterized by an abrupt jump of magnetic field to over 13 nT and of solar wind speed from 480 km/s to 560 km/s accompanied by the jump in ion temperature and density and some rotation of magnetic field components. -STEREO: 2023-05-12T01Z Arrival is signified by a sudden increase in Btotal to 13 nT, accompanied by an increase in solar wind speed to 900 km/s and an increase in ion density. No temperature data is available). The arrival at STEREO A is unexpectedly several hours before the CME arrival at L1.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-05-12T05:48Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 5.37

Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-05-11T18:00Z
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 4.5
GONG: mrzqs
Note that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2023-05-09T21:00Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 1450
Longitude (deg): W07
Latitude (deg): N01
Half-angular width (deg): 47

Notes: 
Space weather advisor: Dean Hall

Lead Time: 24.08 hour(s)
Difference: 11.80 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2023-05-11T05:43Z

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